Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
Low oil prices drove the growth in states' share faster than expected, says Abhishek Waghmare.
The price of the Indian basket of crude oil touched an all-time high of $75.30 per barrel on Thursday, the latest day for which data are available, sending alarm bells ringing in the government.
With volatile international oil prices costing the country $43 billion in import bill, energy-hungry India has called for forging enduring partnerships between oil producing and consuming countries to contain the effect of surging oil prices.
Jet fuel or ATF price on Wednesday was cut by almost 6 per cent after four rounds of monthly increases since July, while commercial cooking gas (LPG) rates were raised by a steep Rs 101.5 per 19-kg cylinder in line with international benchmarks. However, the price of domestic LPG - used in household kitchens for cooking purposes - remained unchanged at Rs 903 per 14.2-kg cylinder. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price was cut by Rs 6,854.25, or 5.79 per cent, in the national capital to Rs 111,344.92 per kl from Rs 118,199.17, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers.
Even as the Group of Seven (G7) price cap on Russian crude oil enters into force as of December 5, India has been assured it will continue to receive the existing deep discounts on Russian oil, for the time being, informed officials. "We have been assured by our Russian partners of uninterrupted crude supplies at the existing rates for the time being. "There were a lot of reports of changes in (India's) buying patterns after the global price cap took hold.
India, which imports over 80 per cent of its oil needs, spent $87.7 billion on importing 220.43 million tonne (MT) of crude oil in 2017-18. For 2018-19, the imports are pegged at almost 227 MT.
International crude prices, which rose to a historic high of over $147 a barrel in July last year, have slumped to four-year low of around $37 per barrel, prompting fears that companies may not invest in new fields. Several oil companies have put on hold investments in small and marginal fields and in difficult and frontier areas following the sharp dip in prices as current rates give a negative rate of return on the huge investments required.
Privatisation of old oil fields to raise output and reduce India's import dependence was advised by the Economic Survey.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
Expecting oil prices to remain under pressure, Fitch Ratings said deregulation of diesel prices in October will help in lowering the under-recoveries (which is nothing but international petroleum prices minus the subsidised retail rates).
The government said on Monday it is examining whether domestic petrol and diesel prices can be reduced in line with the fall in global crude oil prices.
Stressing that there was no alternative except to raise the prices of petroleum products, Union Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, has said the oil companies will incur a loss of Rs 30,000 to Rs 40,000 crore.
By driving a hard bargain with Russia in procuring crude oil at the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of G7 and Washington is "comfortable" with New Delhi over its approach in addressing issues relating to energy security, a top Biden administration official said.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
State-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC) on Tuesday said it is losing about Rs 3 on the sale of every litre of petrol, but will decide on raising prices at an "appropriate" time.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Chinese envoy Xu Feihong stated that China opposes the US imposing tariffs on India, amidst a thaw in Sino-India relations and concerns over global trade disruptions.
If India caves in to US pressure as Trump hopes it will, he will further try to blackmail it into submission, points out Ramesh Menon.
Surging global crude oil prices failed to shore up customs revenue substantially as India Inc resorted to advance licence scheme, which allows duty-free imports for value-added exports.
The government should scrap the windfall profit tax on domestically produced crude oil as the levy is adversely impacting the capex-intensive exploration of oil and gas, the industry said in its recommendation for the forthcoming annual Budget. India first imposed windfall profit taxes on July 1, joining a growing number of nations that tax super normal profits of energy companies. At that time, a Rs 23,250 per tonne ($40 per barrel) windfall profit tax on domestic crude production was levied.
Petrol and diesel prices on Wednesday were hiked by 80 paise a litre each for the second day in a row since the ending of an over four-and-half month hiatus in rate revision. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 97.01 per litre as against Rs 96.21 previously while diesel rate has gone up from Rs 87.47 per litre to Rs 88.27, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers.
India's major imports from the US include crude oil and petroleum products, gold and jewellery, plastics, aircraft, and electrical machinery and components. The key exports to the US comprise pharmaceuticals and biologicals, telecom equipment, precious and semi-precious stones, petroleum products, gold and precious metal jewellery, and ready-made garments.
Signs of a strong pickup in hiring by companies are adding to the rosier outlook for Indian households.
Implementation of Kirit Parikh Committee recommendations looks bleak and the industry's expectation that all petroleum products including crude oil & natural gas should be included under GST is set to be turned down.
With international crude oil prices spiralling to a 12-year high at over $37 a barrel, Petroleum Minister Ram Naik pinned hopes on Finance Minister announcing some fiscal measures to avoid a certain increase in prices of petroleum products,
Who else will take on the might of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon if not the Adanis, Ambanis, Birlas, or Tatas?, asks R Jagannathan.
Amid the crisis in Libya, increase in fuel prices would become 'inevitable' if crude oil remains at $100 per barrel, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said on Monday.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
Every time the Indian economy has faced headwinds due to international developments, the oil sector has played a crucial role, explains A K Bhattacharya.
In one of the steepest increases since daily price revision was started, petrol price on Thursday was hiked by 25 paise per litre and diesel by 30 paise as oil companies raised rates for the third straight day to pass on to consumers the increase in international oil prices.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
Former White House trade advisor Peter Navarro accuses India of being an 'oil money laundromat' for Russia, alleging that India's oil purchases are funding Putin's war in Ukraine. The accusations come amid existing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the US.
'Everybody in America loses because of what India is doing.'
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